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IPO Conversion

고지 사항: 이 백서는 영어 버전이 공식 문서입니다. 다른 언어 버전은 참고용입니다。


When an underlying company conducts an IPO, PIPO warrants undergo a special settlement process. This is the “endgame” scenario that many warrant holders are anticipating.


IPO Timeline Detection:
├── S-1 Filing (Confidential) - Not detected
├── S-1 Filing (Public) - Event window opens
├── Roadshow Start - Monitoring intensifies
├── Price Range Set - Oracle updates
├── Final Pricing - Event window opens
├── First Trade - Final settlement trigger
└── Lock-up Expiry - Post-IPO consideration
EventOracle Action
S-1 FilingOpen 72h event window
Price RangeUpdate valuation range
Final PricingLock IPO price as reference
First TradeBegin settlement price determination

The critical question: What price is used for settlement?

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ IPO SETTLEMENT PRICE OPTIONS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ Option A: IPO Offer Price │
│ ├── Definition: Price at which shares sold to institutions │
│ ├── Pros: Known in advance, clean │
│ ├── Cons: May not reflect true market value │
│ └── Use: If first-day trading restricted │
│ │
│ Option B: First-Day Close (PIPO Default) │
│ ├── Definition: Closing price on first trading day │
│ ├── Pros: Reflects market consensus │
│ ├── Cons: Can be volatile │
│ └── Use: Standard settlement method │
│ │
│ Option C: 5-Day VWAP │
│ ├── Definition: Volume-weighted average over 5 trading days │
│ ├── Pros: Smooths volatility │
│ ├── Cons: Delays settlement │
│ └── Use: If first-day close anomalous │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Settlement Price = First Trading Day Closing Price × Total Shares Outstanding
Valuation = Share Price × Fully Diluted Shares
Example:
├── IPO Offer Price: $50
├── First-Day Close: $65
├── Shares Outstanding: 1 billion
├── Settlement Valuation: $65B
└── Used for warrant settlement

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ IPO EXERCISE TIMELINE │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ S-1 Public Pricing First Close Settlement │
│ Filing Night Trade Day 1 Complete │
│ │ │ │ │ │ │
│ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ │
│ ───┬────────────┬──────────┬─────────┬────────────┬─── │
│ │ │ │ │ │ │
│ │◄──────────►│ │◄───────►│ │ │
│ 72h Event Price 24h │
│ Window Lock Final Settlement │
│ (Optional) Window Process │
│ │
│ During S-1 Window: During Final Window: │
│ • Early exercise available • Last chance to exercise │
│ • Based on estimated price • IPO price locked │
│ • Can withdraw if needed • Cannot withdraw │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

IPO Settlement Flow:
Day 0: Company IPO (First Trade)
├── Oracle Committee convenes
├── First-day close monitored
└── Exercise window opens (24h)
Day 1: Window Active
├── Users can exercise warrants
├── Real-time IPO price visible
├── P&L calculations displayed
└── Exercise/hold decision
Day 2: Window Closes
├── All exercises finalized
├── Oracle publishes settlement price
├── Payout calculations run
└── Distribution queue prepared
Day 3-5: Settlement
├── Cash settlements distributed (T+1)
├── Physical delivery requests processed
├── Non-exercised warrants valued at intrinsic
└── (Can continue trading until expiry)

Pre-IPO State:
├── User holds: 10,000 SPACEX-CALL-180B-Q42025
├── Cost basis: $0.35 per token ($3,500 total)
├── Current AMM price: $0.55
└── Warrant strike: $180B valuation
IPO Occurs:
├── IPO price: $65/share
├── Shares outstanding: 3.5 billion
├── Market cap at IPO: $227.5B
├── First-day close: $78/share
├── Settlement valuation: $273B
Payout Calculation:
├── Settlement: $273B
├── Strike: $180B
├── Intrinsic value: ($273B - $180B) / $180B = 51.7%
├── Gross payout: 10,000 × $1 × 51.7% = $5,170
├── Settlement fee (1%): $51.70
├── Net payout: $5,118.30
User P&L:
├── Cost: $3,500
├── Payout: $5,118.30
├── Profit: $1,618.30
└── Return: +46.2%

Warrants don’t automatically settle at IPO. Users can:

  1. Exercise during IPO window: Get immediate settlement
  2. Hold: Continue holding, can trade on AMM
  3. Sell on AMM: Realize value through secondary market
  4. Wait for expiry: Auto-exercise if ITM
Post-IPO AMM Behavior:
├── Oracle: Now uses live stock price
├── Pricing: More accurate (public market data)
├── Volatility: May decrease (liquid underlying)
└── Value: Tracks intrinsic + remaining time value

Holder TypeTypical Lock-Up
Founders180 days
Employees90-180 days
Early investors90-180 days
PIPE investors30-90 days
Lock-Up Impact:
├── Cash settlement: Not affected (based on market price)
├── Physical delivery:
│ ├── Shares may be locked
│ ├── Buyer inherits lock-up
│ └── Discount may increase
└── Pricing: Post-IPO warrants may trade at discount to intrinsic

Direct Listing Differences:
├── No traditional IPO price
├── Opening price = first trade
├── Higher volatility expected
├── Settlement: Use first-day VWAP
└── May extend settlement window to 48h
SPAC Merger Settlement:
├── Trigger: Merger completion announcement
├── Valuation: Based on deal terms
├── Settlement price: SPAC share price × exchange ratio
├── Timing: T+3 from merger effective date
└── Complexity: May require manual review

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🚀 IPO ALERT: SPACEX │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ SpaceX is going public! │
│ │
│ Event Details: │
│ ├── IPO Date: December 15, 2025 │
│ ├── IPO Price: $65/share │
│ ├── Implied Valuation: $227.5B │
│ └── First Trade: Expected 9:30 AM ET │
│ │
│ Your Positions: │
│ ├── SPACEX-CALL-180B-Q42025: 10,000 tokens │
│ │ └── Status: 🟢 WILL BE ITM (Strike $180B < IPO $227.5B) │
│ ├── SPACEX-CALL-250B-Q42025: 2,000 tokens │
│ │ └── Status: 🔴 WILL BE OTM (Strike $250B > IPO $227.5B) │
│ └── Estimated total payout: ~$5,170 │
│ │
│ Exercise Window: Dec 15, 9:30 AM - Dec 16, 9:30 AM ET │
│ │
│ Actions: │
│ [View Full Details] [Set Reminder] [Pre-Authorize Exercise] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

const ipo = await pipo.getIPOEvent('SPACEX');
// Response
{
underlying: 'SPACEX',
eventType: 'IPO',
status: 'CONFIRMED',
ipoDate: '2025-12-15',
offerPrice: 65.00,
impliedValuation: 227500000000,
exerciseWindow: {
opens: '2025-12-15T14:30:00Z',
closes: '2025-12-16T14:30:00Z'
},
settlementPrice: null, // Populated after first-day close
affectedWarrants: [
{
symbol: 'SPACEX-CALL-180B-Q42025',
strike: 180000000000,
status: 'ITM',
estimatedPayout: 0.517
},
{
symbol: 'SPACEX-CALL-250B-Q42025',
strike: 250000000000,
status: 'OTM',
estimatedPayout: 0
}
]
}
const exercise = await pipo.exerciseAtIPO({
warrant: 'SPACEX-CALL-180B-Q42025',
amount: 10000,
minPayout: 5000 // Revert if payout less than this
});
// Response
{
exerciseId: 'IPO-EX-2025-001',
status: 'PENDING_SETTLEMENT',
tokensLocked: 10000,
estimatedPayout: 5170,
settlementDate: '2025-12-18',
ipoSettlementPrice: 'PENDING' // Updated after first-day close
}